SPY Update

And now the SPY looks to want to resolve its wedge to the upside, some members made some short term leveraged trades on intraday capitulation in the SPY off the wedge pattern.

There's the false break we have come to expect, with intraday capitulation, a break of $115 SPY will be a break out of the descending wedge, and as with GLD and as usual, the implied directionality of the pattern is once again manipulated by Wall Street HFTs. Technician's just don't adjust.

Let me quickly address a question a member sent me. The member asked why I've been so bearish on the market for so long, but now it seems I'm bullish. As I've mentioned before, there's tactical outlooks (short term) and strategic (long term). I don't think you'll find a bigger bear then me on the market, how could I be bullish with a daily 3C chart that looks like this...

This daily chart showed QE2 for exactly what it was (A house of cards) and looks worse then 2008.

However, the short term charts, suggest a tactical move up. Ultimately t just sets up a bigger house of cards. So as for the market, I've called this rally since 2009 a bear market rally, but unlike past bear market rallies, it has been bought and paid for by the Federal Reserve, rather then being an organic rally, which makes the house of cards that much worse.

However, even our worst bear market from the 1929 crash had at least 5 major bear market rallies, some that lasted the better part of a year. So it's just a matter of tactical vs. strategic.

Tomorrow has a good chance of being a short term game changer with the Fed policy announcement.