Monday, September 5, 2011

Miners Trading System

For several weeks now I've been talking about the build in positive divergences in DUST (one of our two trading vehiles for the Miners Trading system). As of tomorrow morning on the open, the signal in both systems 1 and 2 is long DUST on the open with a 3% stop loss from the opening price.

Here's the crossover...
The red line is the signal line, Green is system 1, light blue is system 2, both have crossed down signaling a long position in DUST.

As far as what DUST and the other trading vehicle, NUGT look like....

DUST
 DUST Daily chart makes what looks like a head fake low, breaking below local support and closing off the lows of the day on Friday.

 For some time I have commented on the seemingly large base DUST has been putting together, this important 60 min hart shows the last head fake above local resistance in to a negative divergence and then a positive leading divergence for 3 weeks or so. This would imply that DUST has been putting together a base bigger then the sum of the individual shorter term moves. The possibility/probability of a head fake on Friday makes it even more attractive as that is one of the last events we see before a reversal, but remember we have seen head fakes recently last as long as 3 days and in some cases even longer. Silver/SLV had a 3-day head fake which we anticipated before it even began when the bearish ascending wedge showed up with it's apex occurring around 8/18, we saw a 3 day move above that apex and then a move lower, lower then the apex of the wedge. That event in SLV is still playing out, the point is, technicians expected the exact opposite and we called the move higher before it even began...The predictability of technical analysis and Wall Street's response.

 DUST 30 min confirms the 60 min chart

 DUST 15 min is also confirming with a leading positive divergence even as DUST makes new lows.

 The 10 min hart shows a strong leading positive divergence on Friday in to a lateral trading range in a likely head fake environment.

 The 1 min 3C chart also showed some extreme momentum in making its positive leading divergence.

NUGT- To confirm the DUST findings, we would expect to see the exact opposite in NUGT.
 NUGT doesn't quite make a new high, but certainly blasts through local resistance on heavy volume on a day in which it closed off its highs.

 The 60 min chart is in a leading negative divergence-confrming what we saw in DUST with two moves higher in the white boxes, both in to negative divergences.

 The 15 min chart confirms the DUST 15 min hart and 3C makes a lower high then when prices were lower at 8/22.

 The 10 min chart is not only in a leading negative position, but the extent of Friday's negative divergence had a lot of downside 3C momentum in to another largely flat trading range.

Finally the 1 min chart is also confirming DUST and making a new low at higher highs.

All in all, I like the signal we are getting -DUST long on the open Tuesday a.m. with our standard 3% stop-loss if that is what you choose as part of your risk management.

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