Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Possible Head Fake

If we get this head fake with positive divergences, I'll likely start adding other positions back in to the model portfolio.

 DIA This is a descending triangle, it has bearish implications as a consolidation/continuation pattern, meaning, according to the dogma of Technical Analysis, this is the kind of pattern that traders would usually go short on, especially on a downside break, which if we see positive divergences in to, just like yesterday's upside head fake saw negative divergences, then we'd have a head fake and probably a pretty good area to add long positions back in to the mix.

 DIA 10 min positive 3C divergence in the bearish pattern.

 IWM with the same bearish pattern, a break below the lower trendline on positive divergences would expose this as a head fake move, trapping bears/shorts. THIS IS WHAT I MEAN WHEN I SAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OFTEN DOES MORE HARM THEN GOOD.  WALL STREET has adapted to technical traders, but technical traders keep falling for the same games. This pattern is over 100 years old, it is burnt in to the collective minds of technical traders, making them VERY predictable and making it very easy for Wall Street to manipulate these patterns and cause technical traders to be trapped in losing situations.

 IWM 5 min positive divergence in the pattern.

 SPY descending triangle...

 1 min positive divergence in the pattern.

 Here's the VXX, which trades nearly the exact opposite of the market, it has a bullish ascending triangle and traders expect it to break out to the upside and create the next leg up. This too looks like a head fake set up.

VXX 1 min negative divergence in to the formation of the bullish pattern which is breaking out right now, the averages should be breaking down shortly, actually I just looked and they are breaking right now.

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