Sunday, October 23, 2011

First Read on the EU Summit

As posted last night, it didn't sound like the summit went all that well, apparently they got as far as to agree that EU banks need to be recapitalized, but there were no details. Tackling the issue of Greece seemed to be more of a finger pointing game then anything, although you can hardly blame them as the Troika's report on Greece, released on Friday showed a MUCH worse reality then anyone even dared to dream. Greece alone would eat up the entire EFSF without substantial leverage added, an idea that is up in the air.

So now the expectations are being shifted to Wednesday. I have been curious on the first read of the market's reaction and FX trade just opened, the last print I saw which was around 2 pm suggests the market is not happy, but the bottom hasn't dropped out, yet.

Here's a visual.
 The first red arrow is the NY close on Thursday, the green arrow is the NY open on Friday and the last red arrow is the NY close on Friday. The red line is where the Euro is at last check around 2 p.m.

 This roughly correlates with the bottom of Friday's range thus far. Of course these are only very early indications. I'll update as the situation changes.

No comments: