GLD Update

I know for sure in the last GLD update we talked about a pullback.

The daily GLD chart with the long term 150-day moving average, which over the last 2 years has been an excellent low risk buying area. However, I said that I thought GLD needed to consolidate along the moving average and hold it because it fell pretty hard getting there. Recently GLD (the last 3-4 days) has been a little high and away from the consolidation zone, so a pullback to the m.a. has been expected

GLD 1 min shows a negative divergence yesterday, a positive relative and leading divergence on the open this morning, sending it a bit higher into the gap, however, the 1 min is now going negative again, suggesting it likely won't fill this gap today.

The 5 min GLD chart shows a previous negative divergence and prices dropped a bit (that may have been around the time of the update in which I said it looks like it needs to pullback/consolidate), however it moved higher on a weaker $USD and formed an island top yesterday, which was leading negative. The 5 min chart also shows an intraday positive divergence (white) sending it off its lows.

 The 10 min shows the distribution these last several days as it remained out of the consolidation area below. There's what appears to be a positive divergence, however I suspect the 10 min chart just hasn't moved fast enough yet and I doubt that holds.

 The 15 min chart as well has shown distribution in to these elevated levels away from the consolidation, a leading negative divergence. In the white box you see the Island top, which in my view was also a type of head fake/bull trap as it made new local highs.

 The 30 min chart, showing a good accumulation period which I believe is part of the consolidation, however, I also believe that gold prices reacted to the weak dollar and were pushed higher. It appears this strength was used to distribute in to, and also to help move GLD back to the consolidation area below.

The 60 min chart looks quite negative the higher prices move from the 150 day moving average. If GLD does hold the 150 day and it is so obvious now (buy the 150-day)  that I wouldn't be surprised to see Wall Street try to pull off a head fake with a break below the average, however, should it remain strong, it seems like this 1-2x a year opportunity may be being used to load up on GLD shares on the cheap by Wall Street and others.