"like I said, no victory laps yet.
The final nail in the coffin would be an upside head fake, whether the market can muster it or not, ????
It's not needed, but it happens about 85% of the time just before a reversal."
Wall Street is all about tactics, deceptions and fluidity.
The market gapped up, something I mentioned last night quoted right above. Why?
Here's EUR/USD since the close yesterday to present, it's not so much a move in the Euro as it is a move in the dollar and as I suspected (rotation in the market's obsession) it's not as much about Europe as it is China and more specifically, the possibility of an American/Chinese trade war.
ES futures were pushed higher in the short term on the prospect of a trade war, which in the larger scope, would be a nightmare scenario for the market, but in the short term/overnight, pushed the dollar lower.
Here's some 3C ES charts
Here's the current 5 min ES
As for the SPY extended trading
The light shade is EX trade on an hourly chart... interesting.
So we'll let the a.m. trade wear off and take a look under the covers. A move higher was something mentioned last night as something we see as a head fake about 85% of the time before a reversal and we did have a tight trading range all of yesterday and even Monday could be included so does this bother me? No, the conditions last night didn't seem likely to me if you read my post last night, but as I said, we see it about 85% of the time, so it's not surprising either.
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