Wednesday, October 5, 2011

SPY Update

I'm updating the SPY because I still have a lot of charts I want to look at and in general the trend in the SPY is similar to the other averages for the most part.

 A lot can change very quickly and the earlier SPY negative 1 min divergence did produce a small pullback to the 5 min 50 bar average, however in the afternoon the 1 min hart has moved in to in line status or confirmation, which was surprising.

 This is a close up of the 2 min chart still with some negative divergence, but it too can move quickly and catch up, move in 3 start on the earliest timeframes and proceed to the longer ones.

 The 5 min is still showing a negative

 The 10 min which was a little negative is making moves toward confirmation and a little higher and it will be there.

 The 15 min chart which is the strongest in the SPY and has been leading added a larger leading divergence today in the white box. Ultimately it is moving the right direction and is one of the more important charts. The 3C depth chart below also has the same look as the start of previous rallies.

 The 30 min added to it's leading status today, which would suggest to me that rather stable prices today, have been used for accumulation, rather then trying to buy a rocket like yesterday.

And the 60 min chart is in line, this is not very common for moves of a short duration.

When we are long, we don't like to see price decline, however if you look at some of the most stable uptrends that have lasted years, pullbacks are normal and relieve overbought tensions rather then letting them fester and turn in to a violent move down. We had a pretty big rally yesterday off the lows and a short covering rally would likely not see too many pullbacks along the way, however I don't think we are yet in an area in which shorts are panicked.

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