Thursday, November 10, 2011

Merkel's CDU seeks to wield a club (both meanings of club)

Angela Merkel, probably the most powerful EU figure at this time and her Christian Democratic Union party are seeking to hange the EU treaties as mentioned yesterday in a shocker. Yesterday the wording was that a country that wanted to or could not abide by the common currency rules could leave the union, this has been clarified at the request of the CDU to read more like "Expulsion". The CDU is moving toward a mechanism and change in treaty rules that will allow them to wield a heavy club and throw out any country that they see fit, the problem with smashing a fragile union with a blunt club is the collateral amage, but it seems the German party is no longer seeking to "Save the common currency union at any cost" as was the line just a few short months ago, but rather to preserve Germany as they clearly see contagion spreading as has been predicted by the very acronym "PIIGS" (Portugal-check; Ireland-check; Italy-underway; Greece-double check; and Spain-half a check). They see the rating's agencies bearing down on France's coveted AAA as well as Austria's and they know that contagion is no longer a theoretical possibility of the worst sort, but a self-fulfilling reality.

Of course as with everything that is European Union related, this is not very well thought out, as it has been since the start of the experiment, why do you think England still uses the Pound? They have a little more common  sense and saw the potential pitfalls of not being able to control your own currency (such as deflate your way out of debt).

As I mentioned yesterday, assuming Greece alone is expelled (Italy because of the size of contagion would be a close second), all of that debt the ECB and other entities, including each country's banks would be exposed to massive losses. I suppose Germany is betting that they can take the hit and still survive, but where does that leave everyone else and what happens should France be downgraded by 1 notch? The EU would virtually consist of about 3 countries.

So to recap, today's development, the language has gone from implying a voluntary exit to a forced removal.

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