When I set up the gold miners trading system, which we need to get back to using, I didn't use the price of gold at all in my calculations. I found that the 2 most serious effects on gold miners (which used to lead gold, but that was nearly a decade ago) were FX rates and Energy costs. Almost everything else could be hedged or set as a known cost, such as the purchase of land or a lease, but especially for foreign miners outside of the US (remember that like oil, gold is traded in $USD) these two dynamics severely effected operations. Gold is sold at a fixed cost which obviously moves around, but when a foreign miner has to pay labor in the local currency and there are changes in that local currency vs the dollar, the cost of labor can become more expensive relative to the price of gold being sold, the same can be said for energy which mining requires a lot of. So when the price of oil goes up, again the local currencies value vs the dollar can often make labor and energy much more expensive to sell the same amount of gold. Furthermore like oil, the easy, low hanging fruit has been mined. Miners are now faced with lower grades of ore, they need more expensive technology to get to harder to reach deposits, it can take 10 years from the time of discovery of a new mine until it produces gold and the regulations, taxes and labor laws in foreign countries are more and more expensive, not to mention situations that might occur in a country like Venezuela as these miners have to travel to more remote areas of the world with unstable governments.
I have speculated that miners would pick up in value as they have the actual gold, but my analysis of GDX, NUGT and DUST all suggest miners are n for a bumpy ride.
As for the GDXJ, lets take a look at the charts.
Instead of getting in to the complexities of Dow Theory to define trends, I have found that simple 22/50 and 200 daily moving averages (specifically the direction in which they are slanting) is nearly as good as Dow Theory. In this case the 200 (white) is the Primary Trend, such as bull or bear market, the 50-day (yellow) represents the intermediate trend and the 22-day (red) represents the short (Dow Theory) trend. Here all 3 are in downtrends, any long trade would have a lot going against it from the outset as you would be engaging in a counter-trend trade.
Here's the daily top formation, note the break away gap in the red box, when we see breakaway gaps, the stock is in big trouble and this was never filled so it remains a break away gap. You can see one time when it was tested and the heavy resistance of the breakaway gap sent the stock lower on a failed test.
A closer view shows another small top formation that broke down and provided resistance on a test in the red box, note the 3-day candlestick reversal pattern. After the failed test we saw another breakaway gap at the red arrow.
Long term 3C looks really bad here.
The 30 min chart shows a failed cycle and is in line with price, confirming the downtrend.
The 15 min is in confirmation as well, making any long trade difficult at best. As for a short trade, there isn't a great entry point, you'd have to just jump in with a defined stop, maybe the latest break away gap...
The 5 min chart provides more downside confirmation.
The intraday chart shows a positive divergence that has caused a consolidation, maybe we see some upside, but I would only use that to enter a short as this ETF is very bearish by all standards.
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