Thursday, December 8, 2011

Gold Lower Amid rumors of Central Banks Selling/ How to Trade Falling Gold

In  either case, the long term picture for GLD keeps deteriorating. I've covered the near term GLD charts pretty extensively, so we're going to just take a quick look at the longer term indications.

 Recently we have talked about large triangles such as this acting as tops and bottoms, note the volume is perfect for the formation and we are very close (a few points) from breaking below the triangle's support.

 The 150 day average has been a great place to but, but the sharp decline to the 150 day recently has caused me concern about buying GLD this time.

 The long term Money Stream indicator, like 3C is very negatively divergent, suggesting heavy distribution.

 And 3C has been in confirmation for nearly 7 years, now it goes in to a similar leading negative divergence as MS above.

DZZ is a leveraged inverse Bear ETF for Gold, note the very positive money stream divergence, the exact opposite of GLD, suggesting this triangle formation is a base.


 Volume is correct for the formation and it is very interesting how volume has had an extreme change in character recently.

 ADX suggests the end of the DZZ downtrend and the Trend Channel is almost showing DZZ as a long, it won't take much upside to break through the Trend Channel.

 The short term 3C for DZZ is very positive (5 min).

 As is the 15 min chart

 the 30 min chart and...

The hourly chart, all suggest DZZ is under heavy accumulation, which would tend to back up the view that Gold may be in a bubble or at least an intermediate top of some consequence. The confirmation in DZZ makes the case much stronger.

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