Thursday, January 26, 2012

PLCE Swing Short Idea

PLCE has a few features that you don't see very often and thus caught my attention.

 The first of which is an Island top, which by its nature means there's a very bearish breakaway gap that hasn't been filled, both are rare to see in the market recently. A common occurrence on a strong breakaway gap like the one that created this island top is heavy volume, which you can see i also present. PLCN has bounced in a bear pennant and today has so far put in a bearish engulfing candle which is breaking just below the pennant's support level. Island tops make for interesting shorts because of their huge amount of overhead resistance. Everyone who bought in the Island area and are still holding will eventually add supply as the market moves lower, the reverse of a short squeeze. A stop could be placed just above the consolidation pattern around $52-ish (not at $52 exactly).


 The longer term charts show the island top falling apart with distribution.

 As well as the pennant now seeing the same.

 The daily Trend Channel has held the entire down trend including the recent consolidation, so it would be my choice for a stop in a position trade, again the stop level is right around $52, in this case slightly below.

My custom X-over screen used to prevent false crossover signals is also giving a short signal with the first pullback to the 10-day average and the second to the 22 day average as is normal.

I would certainly consider PLCN as a short candidate, especially on a close below the pennant around $50.30.

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