Sunday, February 19, 2012

Everyone now clearly understands the issue... Except maybe the ECB

As I just reposted part of Friday's analysis of the consequences of the ECB Greek debt swap, the bottom line being no bond buyer anywhere in Europe is safe from having the rules changed in the middle of the game and now face losses on every and any European bond, which will in due course cost the ECB in a predictable twist of fate, an incalculable sum in trying to support yields as bond buyers walk off the playing field; I feel pretty good that I get it. I understand how this pocket change transaction the ECB conducted Friday may bring down the entire sovereign debt market in the Euro-zone and in the near future cause many more countries to fall victim to unsustainable yields which will cause them to seek ever increasing bailouts or more likely the end game will lead to many EU defaults.

Yesterday I outlined this, but this is a situation I have posted on many times when things were still theoretical, now they are real. As proof that my analysis wasn't misguided or hyperbole, here's an article which shows not only does the head of the world's largest bond fund, PIMCO, get it, so does everyone else who has taken the time to just educate themselves on the very basics. There's no need to be a bond guru or accountant or economist to understand what just happened and this article is proof of that. I find it ironic that the language and the understanding of the situation are so similar to what I have posted, that I could probably post it as one of my own articles and no one would know the difference.

Here's the article...

If you are wondering what this has to do with equities and the stock market as that's what we trade,  think back to what Lehman did to the global financial system and the stock market, now imagine that magnified (not only by comparison of the "Lehman Default" vs the consequences of the "Greek Default", but in terms of multiple EU nations facing default). This is no small matter for the bond market, for the global financial system and for our interests, the Stock Market.




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