Just to demonstrate the inverse correlation, here's TLT the 20+ year Treasury ETF in green vs the SP-500 in red. An inverse correlation should be clear. Typically treasuries are sold during a market rally and equities are bought, when there's fear about the market, Treasuries are seen as a safe haven trade. With the yields right now being so low, they certainly aren't chasing beta in buying treasuries.
This is something you don't see often, this is an intraday chart of TLT (green) vs the SPX, they are moving pretty much together and at a similar percentage gain, almost exact at the time of this screen capture.
When I say look for the little things, this would be an example. Last week and early this week I pointed out a small trend of bidding treasuries up in to the close (which is also when the locals do the majority of their trading), it was a subtle sign, but worth noting and 3 days later, reversed the short term down trend in TLT. Why buy treasuries with the yields so low? It seems like a flight to safety.
This 15 min chart shows the recent positive divergence that turned TLT up this week.
This 30 min chart suggests something has been brewing in treasuries for a lot longer then the price chart alone would suggest.
And most interestingly, TLT went negative back in Q3 of 2011 and started topping and rolling over, only to see the underlying trade completely reverse in November/December.
I'm not pointing out a trade in TLT, I'm pointing out market action that is strange and worth noting when analyzing the market.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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