USO Update

I believe the USO trade has been an example of "Sitting tight". Last week 3C indicated a bounce, which makes sense on the break of the major support trendline. Here are the updated charts/stops.

 USO's lateral toppy trade with an RSI negative divergence.

 Intraday, the break of the trendline and subsequent bounce.

 Since the accumulation for the run in October, USO has looked very bad on the longer term charts like this 60 min.

 The 15 min has largely been in line, but negative at just about every gap up, which have been great short entries.

 Here's the 5 min chart accumulation for the bounce from last week, it looks to be ending.

 The 2 min chart showing the same.

 And the 1 min chart since hitting resistance

 The X-over Screen also went short right at the perfect time with no false signals which usually plague flat ranges like this. The blue 22-day moving average is probably a decent stop although I would prefer a little more room at least initially.

 The daily Trend Channel as a stop should work pretty well, I would imagine it will also work well on a first leg down move, however after that it may need to be widened to allow for counter trend rallies, in that case the 2 day Trend Channel below would be a better choice for a longer term trade, although right now they are very similar. Unless USO acts like it did in 2008 after the July top, but even then the 2-day was still a slightly better choice for capturing the bulk of the move.

There's not much difference now between the 1 and 2 day, but in a trending environment...

Here's the difference between the 2 in the 2008 decline...

 1 -day with 2 stop outs...

The 2-day captured the entire trend. The extra standard deviation made a big difference and the stop isn't that much wider.