Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Credit/ Commodities/ Sector

 Interestingly, as the DIA went negative to move toward a re-test, many other assets warned at the same time, like commodities  today.

 Here's what commodities look like long term vs the SPX, this is partially because of China as well-FXP had a nice move yesterday of nearly 4%.

 High Yield Credit also warned, a little later then commodities, but still there.

 Here's HY Credit longer term, it hasn't been able to make a higher high for months and it has recently turned down as we have been in this sticky area of the market.

 Here's ES warning, you saw this earlier, the divergence is deeper now.

 The Euro only followed the SPX/Market so high in the morning bounce and wouldn't go any further.

 However the $AUD carry trade seems to recently be one of the best leading indicators as it started to sell off as the SPX had bounced and went flat.

 Here's a little longer view of the $AUD carry trade, in green it was in sync with the SPX, in red, selling off.

 This is much longer term, in green it was in sync, in red it has been selling off as the rally made this push higher, something we were looking for in AAPL specifically but the market as well as a blow-off/head fake top.

 And the long term vie of the Euro which use to be in sync with the market in 2011, it too has recently seen extra downside pressure.

 High Yield Corp. Credit warned intraday on the bounce too.

 Longer term, Credit has been selling off, it is especially divergent since March 14

 This is Energy vs the SPX today, it also warned, although it has not been an enthusiastic risk asset.

 Longer term, Energy's momentum has fallen way off vs the SPX, this is one of 3 important industry groups for any rally, the other two being tech and financials.

 Here are financials which were showing leadership, today they look pretty flat and unenthusiastic.

 Tech thus far has been the only of the 3 groups that has held its own today.

As for sector rotation today, obviously Financials are moving out along with Energy. Moving in, we see defensive Staples and Healthcare; Treasuries have been catching a bid as well since 2 pm yesterday.  Basic Materials are holding up, Industrials are holding up thus far, I think because of the Dow bounce off support, Tech, Discretionary and Utilities are somewhat stable.

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