Monday, March 5, 2012

HGSI Update

 I liked Friday's doji close, it looked like a short term move up was in the works as it touched on some support (although as we have seen several times already this morning, support and resistance being shaken out are all too common), I believe there is also a larger base in the works that is a separate trade and not quite there.

 Looking closer at a 60 min chart, there appears to be another support level that may be more influential, you can see where it is at the green arrow and trend line.

 This is that same support area, note the pick up in volume as it is crossed, so this does appear to be an important area locally, after the break of that level, HGSI has been pretty much lateral, so I'm guessing there were a lot of stops piled up there and it was too juicy for the pros not to hit. This is another reason I prefer not to put any of my orders in with a broker until I'm ready to execute them, you re showing everyone where you "Uncle" point is and what your intensions are. This is also why i don't put stops near obvious levels.

 On the 1 min chart there is a 3C positive divergence as that support level was broken today. Like that Japanese game that was mistranslated, "All of your shares are belong to us now!"

 The 5 min chart is showing a strong leading divergence here too so this may very well have been a shakeout move to grab shares on the cheap. This is more along the lines of a short term (maybe swing) move up, as I said, I see 2 potential trades here, the shorter one and a larger base and larger move up, this is where the shorter swing trade analysis ends.


 This 15 min leading positive divergence I believe is part of a bigger base being formed in HGI and a longer term trade.

 You can even see the recent positive divergences on a daily chart which is very meaningful.

Ultimately though, I would expect some form of a double bottom base, so on a longer term basis, I wouldn't be buying HGSI just yet, I think on a shorter term swing basis, it's worth a look and I still have the long calls in the model portfolio.

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