Wednesday, March 14, 2012

JPM Front Run

I wanted to take a look at JPM leading up to their 3 p.m. front run of the F_E_D, it appears they may have front run more then the F_E_D...

 This is JPM yesterday just before the 3 p.m. announcement. The red negative divergence makes sense as they lost about 20% of that move in after hours,  but just how early did thy know?

A case could be made for the 9th, sending shares a bit lower to be accumulated, but that's speculation, it appears the 12th would be a pretty good bet as there's a leading positive divergence followed by another on the 13th.

Today's action in the failing banks is also intriguing. Of the 19 tested, C, STI, GJM and MET failed.

While the trading action in these 3 today made sense...
 Citi

 Ally

MET

The action in Suntrust didn't make a lot of sense.

In other strange trade, GS which came in at 5.8 and 5.7 on the stress test (the first number assumes no changes in the bank's dividends, share buybacks, etc after Q1 2012 and the second number is the capital ratio with any proposed changes to dividends, etc through Q4 2013), banks needed a ratio greater then 5 to pass, by comparison, JPM was at 6.3 and 5.4 (the second number is lower as JPM announced a dividend hike and share buybacks) and to give you an idea of what the strongest looked lie, State Street at 15.1 and 12.5. In fact, here's the chart...

In any case, GS looked like this today...
There were some other banks with worse numbers that looked a whole lot better, so what is up with Goldman Sachs...

Greg Smith, a 12 year former Executive Director from GS released an op-ed in the NYT 

Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs


This is a must read. I as well as many others have noted GS's reputation for cannibalizing their own clients, this 12 year veteran tells it like it is and it's just as bad if not worse then I thought. If you want to know what Wall Street is, take the time to read this 2-page op-ed from someone who knows.

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