Thursday, April 12, 2012

Market Update

It's getting a bit tricky here...

 The DIA 5 min has fallen significantly today in a negative divergence...

 So has the SPY...

 I mentioned I think a rotation in to tech is a possibility, the 1 min QQQ chart shows the kind of late day positive divergence we saw in the SPY/DIA yesterday.

 The 2 min is slightly leading negative, but within that there's an intraday positive divergence.

The same goes for the 5 min chart.

This is speculation, but I'm thinking based on what I see, that the S&P and DOW may fall off tomorrow in the leadership role and the Q's may take over to continue to move the market a bit higher a I would suspect.

This raises some questions for me, like whether I want to start a short position in financials or the SPY/DIA.

I'm going to take a look at the risk layout, but what would make the most sense to me is a final blow off top, perhaps tomorrow. We are clearly seeing the negative divergences I expected to see in to market strength and we are getting the kind of volatility that I'd think we should be seeing, however the market almost always moves in extremes and one of my biggest lessons has been that of patience as the market almost always moves further then you expect.

We do have GOOG earnings tonight and the talking heads are saying this rally is all about China's overnight economic data-we know that is not the case, however both could add some gas to the rally, especially if GOOG beats and Tech does come in to rotation.


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