More on volatility and where we are

 This is a simple daily percentage gain indicator I constructed using the SPX. We have expected increased volatility and that's exactly what we have seen. The 2 day bounce this week is the biggest since December or the entire year thus far. Compare the bounce this week (green) to the others marked, it travelled the most distance and some of the other bounces are 3 day moves and yet this is still the largest move up all year. Also note all of the increasing volatility is in the top area, exactly the opposite of a consolidation. Also Look at the exact spot the SPX lost ground at yesterday, resistance, this is the area shorts would expect the bounce to fail. If what I saw in the NDX holds up, then we should rip through the seemingly "failed test" of resistance and knock out even more shorts and bring the longs rushing back in to the market, only to see everyone knocked out of their positions.

 On a weekly basis, even with the biggest 2 day bounce of the year, we have the biggest decline of the year, -2%, now that is some volatility, the biggest 2-day move of the year this week with the week ending with the largest weekly loss of the year, spectacular!

Here's the apparent failed test of NASDAQ 100 resistance, I had a git feeling about AAPL underperforming in the bounce, that was correct, 3C suggested financials would lead the bounce, that was correct, now it is suggesting Tech will lead the last portion of the bounce, only time will tell if that is correct, but we should know early next week, most likely Monday as the positive divergence in Tech was very much like the positive divergence in the market on Wednesday and look how Thursday turned out. I see no reason volatility will diminish, so this should be another crazy week. My initial thoughts right now are a 1-2 day bounce is about what we have left, if it is two days, the failure should come in the afternoon of the second day. With volatility being what it is, I have no reason to think the failure will be any less spectacular then the increasing volatility we have seen for the last month-plus. That would make for a VERY ugly decline.