USO Update

I'm still a little ticked my earlier USO calls didn't get filled, but that's part of the game.

 I have said I'm short term bullish, meaning these little bounces and longer term bearish on USO as this is a near perfect example of the "Boiling a frog" theory.

 USO has been clearly trending down, but for those who get caught up in the intraday trade, there have been numerous intraday recoveries to make you "Feel" USO is more bullish then it actually is. You see the quick moves down and then the longer moves up, intraday this can "feel" like there's strength in a trend that is clearly down, but this is all part of the game, as I maintain and will until I see different, a price chart is a reflection of emotions.

 USO's break below some significant support today was clearly being accumulated for one of these short term trades with calls that have worked well if you are nimble enough to get out of the way in time. Honestly the same play could be used with puts, but the position would need to be closed early after the a.m. gap down. There's overhead resistance in the area and USO seems to be consolidating before making a run at that resistance.

 Today's a.m. accumulation of the break of support, the 2 min negative divergence toward the afternoon doesn't have to imply a reversal, many times these are just consolidations.

 The 5 min chart, which is one of the main reasons I put in the Call order earlier for the options MP is holding up fairly well.

The hourly chart looks like this is USO's best chance to break toward the downtrend's upper trend line.

Knowing that USO would need dollar weakness to pull that off, that also has some impact on the overall market as it would benefit from the same dollar weakness.

For now, I'm holding the May $38 calls in USO from Friday.