Thursday, April 5, 2012

WMT Trade Follow Up-New Entry?

 WMT long term Money Stream daily chart, leading negative

 This is a rather large bear flag in WMT, we have been watching this for well over a month and had some trade entries (short) at the red arrows on the break out of the channel. Ultimately we were looking for the break below the flag to start the next leg down, which has happened this week. However, as we commonly see, breaks of serious support levels often lead to quick volatility shakeouts, so for those of you who didn't already get in to the WMT short and may want to, this may be your chance.

 Returning to "kiss the channel goodbye" is a long standing technical concept, the markets recently have become a bit more aggressive then a simple test and failure of resistance, now we generally see a move back inside the channel as that is what is needed to shake shorts out, a test and failure at resistance would only embolden shorts and the market wants to knock as many people out of their positions as possible. So I'd look for a move in to the channel around the yellow box.

 WMT's 60 min trend shows the negative divergences, one was at the breakout of the channel and we are now leading negative on the break below the flag.

 The 5 min chart looks like it has enough intraday accumulation to make a run for the flag.

 However, it seems we are already starting to see some weakness build in on the 1 min chart and just starting on the 2 min below. WMT can still rise in to this weakness, it just suggests that WMT is being sold short in to strength and limited demand on a slow day.


For a new position, I would consider the 2 day trend channel stop of $61.50-$61.75.


No comments: