Friday, May 25, 2012

Bigger Picture-Not too big

In one of the last updates I mentioned short-very short term charts showing accumulation, but not seeing the same confirmation on longer term intraday timeframes, like 5 min. It looks to me like the same thing that happened yesterday is happening today, accumulation in to lower prices. Remember the pennant post from earlier today, there's several ways it could play out, a head fake move below the pennant and then a move bove which would pull in more shorts and ultimately give an upside move more momentum as they are forced to cover in a squeeze or a breakout somewhere in this area.

 Here's the pennant and the white areas are where there have been strong positive divergences, buying price weakness, it's exactly what we did on Wednesday the 23rd with gains in all of those positions, the same thing seems to be happening, whether we move to the lower trend line and post a head fake break down move or not is difficult to say, but I think the upside head fake move is more certain, it's just a matter of timing at this point and being I entered longs on Wednesday (I wouldn't normally do this without good reason, especially as long positions clash with my major market view, tells me we are very close as does the price pattern above.

 The short term charts are still showing increased positive divergences in to lower prices intraday, this is what happened yesterday before the market rallied in the afternoon and it happened on a much bigger scale on Wednesday, the market was VERY positive at price lows and we started buying before we had ANY upside price confirmation based on the strength of the signals, all of those longs are in the green.

 FXE is still leading positive, but pulling back in 3C a little here.

 The bigger picture is the positive divergence has made it to a 60 min chart, we haven't seen any market bounces over the last several months make it to the 60 min chart-the longer the timeframe, the more significant the divergence.

 IWM moving up in to somewhat lower prices short term 1 min

 IWM's 1st 60 min positive divergence

 QQQ has held up well all day in price and 3C-although rangebound, it was weaker yesterday, seems to be making up for yesterday a bit.

 QQQ 60 min leading positive right at the pennant.

 SPY 1 min 3C positive divergences in to some lower prices.

 3 min SPY

 60 min leading positive at the pennant

UUP-$USD with the first 60 min leading negative in at least two months, actually the last time it was leading negative was Jan 10th around the same price area and it fell to the Feb lows from that divergence. The Euro is a proxy for the $USD, what the market really needs is $USD weakness, there it is.

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