Consumer Confidence

After last week's University of Michigan's very odd (positive) consumer confidence, I was very interested to see what the Confidence Board's print would come in at (10 a.m. this morning).

Released On 5/29/2012 10:00:00 AM For May, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Consumer Confidence - Level	69.2	69.7	67.5  to 72.0	64.9

Sure enough, as I would expect and now contradicting the U of M print, Consumer Confidence missed consensus and dropped below the prior as well. You may recall last week I was very suspicious of the U of M print.

This is the 3rd consecutive miss for Consumer Confidence, much more inline with what we are seeing in Domestic Equity Fund outflows.

 There was some large volume at the 10 a.m. print, it didn't do anything to price though.

 There's some congestion overhead in the $133.80-$135, the $134.40 area though will be important as far as a short squeeze; this is the area technical traders will expect a test of resistance and a failure.

The daily longer term trend line, important resistance in the $134.80-$135 area, a break through this area should really get a short squeeze moving. Expect some backing off as price nears the area which will draw in additional shorts as they expect a failure of resistance; a subsequent move above it will see those short positions cover and prime a bigger short covering move.