Monday, May 14, 2012

More of the same in Europe

We discussed how the process would unfold in Greece to try to form a coalitions government, first the first place party (by votes), The New Democracy (pro-bailout) would have 3 days, they gave up on the first day. Then the second place party, Syriza (anti-bailout) would be given 3 days, they didn't so much give up I believe as passed the baton knowing new elections would push them over the top to a position of leadership, in any case, less than a day. Finally 3rd place pro-bailout party, PASOK was given 3 days, they failed for form a coaliton government as of the end of the weekend.

The next step is the President of Greece will call all 3 parties together to a meeting and try to form a unity government, should that fail, then Greece heads to new elections around mid-June. It seems this has already failed as Syriza leader Tsparias has said through a spokesman that he would not be attending the final meeting, which makes sense as polls show Syriza gaining so much momentum that if new elections were held they'd get more votes than the ND and PASOK combined and have an automatic government in place. This has weighed on the Euro, but I can't believe that any reasonable person didn't see this coming.

More of the same in Spain as well as their 10-year benchmark yield jumped to 6.26% (6% is the level that is unsustainable in which Greece, Ireland, Portugal, etc have all sought bailouts as it's too expensive to raise funds via bond issuance), so Spain is heading down the same road and we know there isn't a bailout fund large enough to handle Spain and Portugal which is already in need of new funding.

Also more of the same in Spain, more banks are rotting from the inside out and expected to fail or be nationalized.

Asian trade ended showing the Chinese RRR cut really didn't have much of an effect.

Thus far the only thing that has settled ES in to a range is the fact Italy was able to issue some 10+ year debt, which is seen as a success, even though the rates were higher.






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