Thursday, May 17, 2012

Overnight

The session in ES started well and held pretty well as the Japanese GDP came in slightly stronger  (1.0) than consensus (0.9).

Spain managed to sell some 3 and 4 year debt, the internals of the auction wren't horrible, the 3 year which falls in the LTRO range was a little better, yields were higher on both lines. Than came the rumor/news that Moody's would shift their focus to Spanish banks today and downgrades of their debt ratings are expected today. Spain's Bankia, which was partially taken over by the government last week said it saw $1 bn euros in deposits flee over the last week (bank runs in Greece and Spain).

In the US, thus far the only data is Initial Claims



PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level367 K365 K360 K to 375 K370 K
4-week Moving Average - Level379.00 K375.00 K
New Claims - Change-1 K0 K

IC missed at 370k on consensus of 365k, last week's prior was revised higher from 367k to 370k-the media has spun this as a positive "Initial Claims Unchanged", as we have talked just this week about the way they keep revising the previous week higher and calling the current week's high reading a success, this has now become a trend with US economic data.

Here's ES overnight


 ES closed at 4 o.m. yesterday at 1322.75, hit an overnight high of 1330.75 and currently stands at 1324.50.

As for the EUR/USD, as you can imagine it looks similar to ES.

 EUR/USD currently

 From that small bullish triangle just after the close yesterday-looks a lot like ES here...

And the 2 week trend.




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