Friday, May 11, 2012

Starting with the troublemaker, Greece...
The market may get a brief respite according to this article in Ekathimerini from Greece 

"PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos will hold talks on Friday with his counterparts at New Democracy and the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) with the aim of agreeing on a framework for a unity government after Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis on Thursday backed the formation of an ecumenical administration.
Kouvelis had previously insisted he would not enter a coalition with ND and PASOK as long as the two parties remained committed to the austerity policies applied over the last two years. The Democratic Left chief now appears to believe that a unity government with a specific agenda could meet his two specific goals of keeping Greece in the euro and moving the country away from the fiscal restrictions of the program agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund."

I don't see the Trokia agreeing to anything less than the original terms, but for now, the crisis is a little less intense, what the goals of Syriza are in this latest endeavor are hard to ascertain, but this is obviously some set up to furthering their goals as they are only an election away from ruling the country. It may have something to do with Germany saying today that a Greek exit of the EZ is manageable, however Fitch disagrees and said if the crisis sees Greece moving out of the Euro, it will likely put ALL remaining Euro-zone countries on Credit Watch Negative-ALL!


While Greece is the focal point, Spain is a huge problem and their banking sector bailout was a huge disappointment, about half of what was expected. While Greece remains in the spotlight, Spain is the backup that will sink the EU if Greece doesn't do it first, however sentiment is firmly fixated on Greek politics right now.

In China Industrial Production is slowing and inflation easing, this is a pretty good combination for potential easing from the PBoC, this is what the market wants, wherever it can get it, so this was a bit of market positive news. Speculation is already making its rounds that China will stimulate based on this data. I think 1 report is not significant, but if it gives the market some breathing room, so be it. Sentiment tends to change hourly, trends take much longer.

Additionally Indian Factory output missed, in case your missing it, the global trend is recessionary.



In the US, PPI printed below expectations.
Released On 5/11/2012 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI - M/M change0.0 %0.0 %-0.2 % to 0.4 %-0.2 %
PPI -Yr/Yr change2.8 %1.9 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change2.9 %2.8 %


With consensus at zero, the -.2% print was a miss to consensus and prior, continuing the trend in disappointing US economic data.


The last bit of US economic data for today just came in, Consumer Sentiment...


Released On 5/11/2012 9:55:00 AM For May, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Sentiment Index - Level76.4 76.2 74.0  to 78.5 77.8 


This was a beat and the highest reading since January of 2008! Talk about a disconnect! Whatever this wild print is, it has no bearing on reality, but again, if it gives the market some breathing room, so be it.

The US is quiet for the rest of the day except for F_E_D speaker Richard Fisher which is underway now, leaving the focus back on Greece for the rest of the day, which seems it may be quiet as well. This may be a little lull in the storm.

ES which has been in a choppy drift down all night took off like a bat out of a hot place on the open, I find that interesting considering the 2012 record short interest ad all the other shorts that jumped in last night after JPM, it seems what we suspected, a nice short squeeze, could indeed be underway and I don't think it has anything to do with the above data considering when it started and how it started.

The good news just isn't enough to offset the bad and the potential of the bad, this seems more like a controlled Wall Street cycle now in burn mode.






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