Thursday, June 21, 2012

FB Finally to pullback?

As you know, I closed out my FB calls for a gain I believe last week, I have been hoping for a suitable pullback to add the position back. As it stands now, it looks like FB is going to pullback. I don't see a strong enough edge to short the move, but if it turns out to be a reversal instead of a pullback, it's no skin off our backs. If a pullback opens up another great opportunity, then that's great.

 FB saw some volume come in to the market as stops or orders (shorts) seemed to be triggered on a break below some intraday support.

 This is the bull flag which technical analysis teaches is a continuation pattern that should break out to the upside and start another leg up, I suspected this pattern would be gamed and we'd see a pullback here. As you can see some volume came in to the market as FB broke above the bull flag (pennant ), that's the head fake move that should set up the downside pullback.

 Ultimately, this is the area that FB would have to break above to get a real Stage 2 mark-up move going, it still may do that, in fact I see that as the highest probability as the longer term charts are still very positive.

 FB 1 min negative after good confirmation on the move up, again for those of you using 3C, note the flat price range where the negative divergence occurs.

 The same negative is on the 5 min chart, it's not too sharp so I don't have any reason to believe this is more than a pullback at this point and I also don't have a strong enough signal/edge, to short the pullback. I'll just wait it out and see if the next opportunity presents itself as I suspect it will

 The 15 min chart, again note the negative divergence on the head fake move above the bull flag/pennant and the flat price range.

 The 60 min chart is still leading at a new high for FB, which is why I won't short FB and believe we'll have another chance at this on the long side for a move in to stage 2 mark up.

The Trend Channel has worked great, the original stop was below $26, the Channel locked in gains every day. The current stop is $31.41

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