Not to get too excited, yet, but thus far things are working out as originally envisioned BEFORE the F_O_M_C and before the pullback even began.
I suspected there would not be positive divergences right away as one of the points in accumulation is to do so at better prices, that thus far happened, I was looking for positive divergences in to lower prices, that has happened and the overall price pattern looks constructive. Also the migration through the 3C timeframes looks more like what I hoped to see, yesterday we were starting to see that, but we were missing a few pieces, today there's improvement in that area as well.
I have maintained the long (leveraged) hedging ETFs in the equities portfolio that also has the core short positions.
As I posted yesterday with regard to different head fake areas and the psychological effect, the move down from above support would certainly be viewed by bears as confirmation of a failed test and give them confidence to enter the market, shorts are needed to get a short squeeze really moving. Today's daily candle also looks much better and as if the pullback is coming to an end, although we need to remain vigilant.
Intraday I didn't expect positive divergences on the initial pullback, but this "U" shaped area is a typical basing pattern. The next resistance is at the gap created on yesterday's open, look for congestion in that area as shorts will be looking to short that resistance area as well and as usual the market may throw them a bone to get them to commit.
The 3 min chart is leading spectacularly.
Now we have a distinct positive 15 min divergence and this is an important timeframe. Next I want to see the 30-60 min charts start to see bleed through from this 15 min chart.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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