Monday, October 22, 2012

AAPL

Friday's November AAPL $615 Calls are doing fairly well, up over 7% as of now, I had a feeling Tech would see some leadership early this week and especially after op-ex (that' more market wide than just tech).

There are some key areas AAPL needs to break through nearby, but it also needs to not get too far ahead of itself and allow some basing activity to build a larger positive divergence to get a larger move from AAPL. I still think it the probabilities are with a shakeout move in AAPL of short positions, one thing AAPL has that many stocks don't is a loyal base of longs that love the stock and will jump in if they think there's the slightest chance of AAPL recovering, AAPL has just conditioned them over the years through things like low guidance and easy earnings beats (AAPL reports this week).

Here's AAPL thus far near an important first test of resistance.

 The first real test is the support area formed at 10/9's Hammer, AAPL is probing it now.

 Here's the area, note AAPL consolidated a bit below it and pushed through, but has met some resistance there, in my view this is fine, AAPL does need to be able to consolidate to build a larger, stronger base to move up from.

 AAPL 3 min was quite positive in the short term as of Friday's close.

As mentioned, the divergence in AAPL, like the Q's, goes out to 10 min so it has a head start on many other assets/stocks. The area in which the first real test will be determined is the $623.55 area, the Hammer mentioned above.

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