Thursday, October 18, 2012

Member Question re: GOOG's impact

I had a member email asking the question I asked earlier, what will GOOG's impact be on the market in both the near term as far as our plans go and if it has a longer term effect. The truth is it will take several days to really know, but this member was specifically interested in FB and MCP, two longs that are both longer term positions (FB more so than MCP) and the truth is, I don't see much that has effected them, especially MCP.

One thing I noticed since QE3 was announced, the high fliers haven't been looking good, the stocks that are maybe overvalued (P/E) and I suspected that we would see people looking for bargains that have been beaten up and selling stocks they feel they may get caught in a bursting bubble, GOOG may do more in that area of market psychology than anything and this creates the Super-Stock-Pickers environment I have been talking about.

As for our two positions, FB did move with the market which isn't surprising, MCP not so much.

The charts...

FB
 The red arrow is about where GOOG came out on this 2 min chart and FB did respond as I imagine most of the market did, but seeing a positive divergence in to that pullback this afternoon is the first hint that GOOG maybe didn't have much of an effect on the intensions of those putting the base together. Will they welcome lower prices? YES! There isn't a negative divergence and this is where we'd see it, there isn't even an in line, it's a positive so while some stocks may be effected, I think FB will probably not be among them.

 FB's longer term 30 min chart is still in a very positive place, it will need a day or so to settle and catch up, but I don't see anything that is sending up red flags.

MCP
 MCP daily volume is picking up, we aren't seeing a strong close, but we have follow through thus far on volume so that's a good sign and it's no different than this morning except we have the volume.

 We also have a bull flag consolidation, normally I'd be looking at whether this gets manipulated or not, but I think MCP is probably not on too many longs' radar right now.

 The 2 min chart is in line, it didn't suffer any GOOG inflicted damage, so thus far the answer is no.

A bit longer term and MCP is still in good position.

I do think GOOG will be a poster child for the high fliers and the parabolic movers this year that we have seen, I think those get sold off-AAPL included, I think the stocks that have been neaten down are where people will feel more comfortable being in the market right now.

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