Friday, November 2, 2012

Still Perfectly On Track

Again, I can't say it's a surprise being an election year and considering the cycle that had been set up last week, but Non-Farm Payrolls just sent ES popping higher.

Released On 11/2/2012 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change114,000 125,000 30,000  to 168,000 171,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level7.8 %7.9 %7.8 % to 8.0 %7.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change104,000 120,000 104,000  to 167,000 184,000 


This is a huge beat at 171k added vs consensus of 125k, the un-emplyment rate did rise a little to 7.9% as it is an average. There are a bunch of other minor details about the average work week and wage inflation, but they pale next to the beat.

Here's ES which closed yesterday at $1422.25 at 4 p.m. and now around the 1430-1431 level

Note the odd and rather large positive and then leading positive 3C divergence before the NFP came out.

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