Friday, December 21, 2012

Opening Indications

This is a more difficult than usual opening to analyze because of the sudden gap from last night's futures, but as I said last night, with it being Quad-Witching, it's likely Wall St. isn't going to want to take a large loss on contracts they wrote, so an attempt to get them back toward yesterday's close, at least for today, makes the most sense whereas most traders are simply looking at this as the market broke and they expect it to break further today. You have to consider everything and Quad-Withing Options Expiration is the main consideration.

This is why I said you might want to take some profits on Puts, etc. early on.

This is what I have so far, 3C basically needs to re-set to the new norm, but there are several confirming signals so far.

 Intraday signals are not going to look as they usually do today, especially early on, but here we can see the DIA trying to move up, 3C was in confirmation and then a negative divergence, this is a 1 min chart so unless that negative divergence moves to the 2 min, 3 min, etc. for now we should consider this as a breather or consolidation.

 The IWM shows the same thing.

 The QQQ however does not, it's still in line and trying to move higher.

 The SPY is showing something similar as well.

 You already saw it, but this is after hours ES (S&P mini Futures) with 3C showing something bad was going on, we just had no idea how bad it would be. At this point with a leading negative divergence, ES had only lost about 2 points, it went on to lose about 50.

 The overnight session I showed you earlier with a long positive divergence suggesting what we thought last night, that Wall St. will try hard not to take a loss on contracts they wrote on Quad Witching today.

 ES close up this morning with a few positive divergences, this being another reason I said I'd consider taking some early profits in some of the more leveraged assets, there is a relative negative divergence as of this capture, again its 1 min so for now I'd consider it as a consolidation only.

The NASDAQ futures however are still in line just like the QQQ, so there's some confirmation there early on.

I have no idea what to expect as there are a lot of different markets overnight Wall St. could have used to try to hedge and mitigate losses, so we'll keep watching, but some serious damage was done last night, I would almost equate it with the back of the market being broken.

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