More Immediate Concerns

***This is a post I had been working on yesterday for some time, I put out a later, briefer post, but since writing the below comments which in my view suggested a direct Al Qaeda link to events in the Muslim world using that crudely made film as an excuse for this kind of wild-fire discontent, just didn't sit well with me, it seemed there was much more behind the protest, although the protestors by and large are simple pawns, it is an effective strategy by Al Qaeda, divide and conquer as they say. The US can't deploy assets to 50 or 60 regions at once. In light of developments since I wrote this yesterday, I figured I'd release this post as a sort of background information before updating the most recent events. Tonight we'll see how the futures market is taking all of this in.****


As Thursday the market got what it has been seeking since 2011, quickly it may have to deal with more pressing concerns. It's difficult to say if Friday's lack of a strong follow through rally was connected to a ground swell anti-American (as well as other Western Countries -German and British as well) movement gains momentum that makes even the Arab Spring look tame; however I think there's little question that oil prices clearly reflect growing concern over events.

It turns out my "4 nations a day joining the protests " estimate was too conservative as can be seen below...

 At present, I count at least 42 different ares where protests have taken place since the September 11th killing of a US ambassador and 3 aides in Libya and this doesn't include other areas such as Australia and Germany. While hostilities are being blamed on a crudely made trailer for a film that insults Mohammed, Egyptian Intelligence warned the US as early as September 4th that the Global Jihad group was planning at least two embassy attacks on both American and Israeli embassies. 

The Libyan attack was not anything like the global protests that have erupted, blamed on the film. The group said to be responsible for the attack is a Al Qaeda spin-off, named after a blind Sheik serving a life sentence in the US for his part in planning the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center.  This group was heavily armed including rocket launchers and heavy artillery. Look at the damage to the Consulate...

In addition there have been a wave of protests against the terror plot by Libyans, carrying signs saying, "This does not represent us".

Many Libyans also expressed their high regard for Ambassador Stevens, saying he was a friend to all Libyans.

I won't show the photo because of its graphic nature, but the Libyan people had come to the ambassador's aid after the attack and tried to revive him.

The US response in the hot spots has obviously been to step up security with more marines stationed at embassies and consulates, a very different response to the Libyan event in which two warships were sent as well as predator drones, an elite team of marines and CIA/FBI assets as well. Obviously this seems natural as those responsible are tracked down, but the point is the US government seems to be acutely aware that this event was much different than other protests taking place, as whoever is truly behind the plot (An Al Qaeda-produced Web video recently released called for Libyans to avenge the death of a terror leader killed by a drone strike in their country in June) uses the film as being justification.

Just today, Al Qaeda has released more videos calling for Muslims to carry out more attacks on US diplomats in Muslim nations.

The assault on the consulate lasted 4 hours where Ambassador Stevens and Smith died,  with some staff members escaping to a second site which was also attacked killing 2 more US embassy staff. 

The September 11th date stands out as does the location as American support for anti-Gadafi forces helped topple the regime. Initial protests also were notable in that they were all Arab Spring countries such as Tunisia and Egypt. 

This seems much more well coordinated than simple waves of protest. The US government has sent Marine FAST teams to several embassies and consulates, but the widespread nature of the protests and the ability for militants to blend in to crowds as large as 500,000 is typical Al Qaeda guerilla tactics that divide thin US assets.

In other escalating tensions, China has sent 6 ships including warships in to what are considered to be Japanese territorial waters off the coast of the Senkaku Islands islands which Japan has recently purchased from private owners, but have been under Japanese jurisdiction for decades, however that jurisdiction has been disputed by China for years. This has inflamed tensions with thousands of Chinese protesting outside Japanese Embassies in multiple locations throughout China. Japanese restaurants and businesses have also been attacked.

The US is not clear of this incident either, as recently as 2010 the US reiterated that the islands fall under the scope of the US-Japanese Security Treaty.