Wednesday, January 16, 2013

AAPL Update

This is a picture perfect example of why you should use you greatest edge over Wall St., "PATIENCE" and let the trade come to you. Too many traders think they have to be busy bodies or else they are missing opportunities when they're really just taking a bunch of sub-par trades and hoping something sticks. This AAPL set up yesterday (at least for a short term trade and maybe more-I'm more interested in the short term) is a perfect example of letting the trade come to you which included two head fakes or what I call a "Crazy Ivan" shakeout.

We should have a pretty decent profit right now in yesterday's AAPL long, here's the Feb $485 Call Trade idea from yesterday and AAPL is up around +3.5% with signs of an intraday consolidation or correction, but also some new signals.

You recall the price pattern, how Technical traders would read this, how Wall St. shook them out twice and the level we are just under that completes head fake #2 and the Crazy Ivan. This is how Technical Analysis is used against traders, this is a perfect example.

 The 1 min chart has a slight negative, one the 1 min that could lead to intraday consolidation or a correction (either correcting through time or price).

 The 2 min went negative to create the downside shakeout and then positive yesterday which is why we thought the Q's were going positive as well. This is a new leading positive high for the 2 min.


 The 5 min is also at a new leading positive high so I'm guessing this trade has some legs.

 I mentioned yesterday that even the 10 min chart was showing hints of a positive divergence and here it is today leading.

Now the bigger question is whether the 15 min chart's longer term pattern that looks to me like a larger base is part of this move. If so, I'd take profits on the calls at the first sign of a significant pullback and look at AAPL equity long.

We'll cross that bridge when we get there, for now I like the AAPL trade and unless the charts beyond 1 min deteriorate, I see no reason to close it yet.

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