Thursday, January 10, 2013

Leading Indicators-Credit

OK, finally some movement in the one are of leading indicators that we have been waiting for just like the 15 min ES charts that finally went negative.

High Yield Corporate Credit which has been right at previous all time highs in short interest, still hasn't made any negative move to the downside which is something we should see before a meaningful reversal to the downside.

Junk Credit (Also a risk asset) also hasn't turned.

However, High Yield has turned down, since 12 pm as the SPX has been correcting on a leg higher, HY credit is moving to lows seen several days ago, so finally some movement there.

The Euro and the SPX are moving together since the 11:15 bottom, this still leaves the EUR/USD in a very parabolic bounce and I don't trust these, you may want to keep an eye on the pair as an early warning indication.

Intraday Yields are starting to diverge negatively, remember they were and still are in a larger negative divergence with the SPX even though they did move higher today in what looked like early support of the SPX.

Commodities are flat, even though the $USD has been dropping pretty much all day-commodities normally would be headed higher with a falling $USD.

So we don't have a smoking gun here, but we do have some changes we've been expecting and waiting for, finally starting to take shape.


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