Quick Look at Leading Indicators

The SPY arbitrage is positive and getting more positive as the day goes on, I'm not sure what the angle is in the disconnect between the SPY which is performing nearly perfectly with leading indicators and the QQQ which seems like it needs to put in one more definable right shoulder before its ready to go, perhaps the SPY is being used as a teaser to keep the gamefish interested while the rest of the tackle is deployed in,  "FISHERMAN'S VERNACULAR".

This positive SPY Arbitrage model vs the SPY (red) doesn't surprise me at all, HYG and Junk Credit are performing nearly tick for tick with the SPX, Volatility or VIX futures are being manipulated to the downside (making market conditions more bullish), commodities which have been performing pretty horribly today (I'm guessing because of what CAT's earnings mean for construction and most materials) are starting to improve, Yields/TLT aren't bullish or leading positive, but have made huge strides in improvement today.

As for FX,  I think this may ultimately be where the hang-up is, I wouldn't launch a market rally unless everything was onboard and ready to go and currencies are not, not yet at least. The $AUD is not supportive, the Euro is not supportive,  the $USD hasn't been supportive, but that is just changing now, the Yen is barely a factor, but intraday a bit supportive.

Looking at FX futures, 3C's position on the $USD is much more supportive of a move to the downside, the divergence has developed beautifully during regular hours today. The Euro, whether as an effect of the $USD move or on its own is looking positive with 3C and supportive of a move up, that means the EUR/USD pair should look good for a move higher and it does. The cog in the wheel may be the Yen, it does look like it wants to move higher and this is what I wrote so much about last weekend, this is a major player for the market, near term and more so longer term and it doesn't look good. However, surprisingly, the divergences in the Euro and the $USD look like they will send the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY higher, which is bullish for the market near term, essentially the divergences in the Euro and $USD are stronger than they Yen.

All in all, leading indicators are becoming more and more supportive.