AAPL Possible Set Up-MARKET CONCEPT

I don't have any strong reason to believe this is a high probability and the worse shape the market is in or rather the more fractured the market is the less likely it becomes. The reason is, if a fund or group of funds set up the normal concept and price moves up (even though it's a head fake), there's another group desperate to sell and will overwhelm the small accumulation meant for this market manipulation, they don't put much money in to these head fake moves, they are designed to make them money, so on that basis, any price gains are easily overwhelmed by a fractured herd. Instead of seeing the set up and joining it as we sometimes do, they see the set up and sell in to it-"He who sells first, sells best".

However, just in case...

As I always say, because the market is human emotion, the concepts are fractal as is the market, you'll see this happen on a 1 min chart, a 15 min chart, a daily or monthly chart-the concept doesn't change.

AAPL has a small H&S pattern, you can see it above on the 10 min chart, you may recall there are 3 places I will play a H&S pattern and 1 I WILL NOT. The places are, at the top of the head short, at the top of the right shoulder short or AFTER a break below the neckline and a volatility shakeout of the shorts with a bounce above the neckline-driving all the new shorts out, that's the third place I will enter a H&S. The one place I will NOT enter a H&S is where Technical Analysis tells you to, on the break of the neck line (red trendline support). That's where most shorts enter on "Price Confirmation" and that's where most will be shaken out.

I have no strong 3C proof of a shakeout here, but it is a common market behavior that takes advantage of the predictability of Technical Traders who have been doing the same thing in this case, for a century.

I mention this because first I want to prepare you in advance in case you see it, you know what it is and don't fall victim to the trap. Secondly and more importantly, for anyone wanting to enter AAPL short, that's the last low risk, high probability area to do so. You have to wait until price is above the neckline and you see signs of short covering like a rally with no pullbacks intraday, like a diagonal line.

Not an update, just an FYI for newer members.