Tuesday, June 25, 2013

FSLR Follow Up

FSLR is a position that is not only among call positions, but one that I have felt had legs of its own, I did say I think the market in general will need to act like a spark plug to get the engine cranked, but after that, FSLR has its own thing going on and it could either A) out perform the market on a relative basis over the same period or B) could possibly run longer than the market in the end. It is for these reasons I have also liked FSLR as an equity long position.

Today FSLR was up more than 8%
 At last check FSLR was just under +8% for the day on good volume.

This chart may not look that impressive, but it's a 60 min chart, very few positive divergences are hitting 60 min charts so the top was not only called very clearly with heavy distribution, but this recent bottom with heavy accumulation. For this reason I believe FS:LR has legs of its own and doesn't need to hitch a ride with the market.

30 min

10 min

Interestingly the 10 min has a negative that developed in the late afternoon, the divergence flowed or migrated from the 2 and 3 min charts...

Here's the 3 min.

Remember though, all new divergences start on the 1 min chart so the 1 min went negative , then the 2 and 3 min and then the 5 min, that seems to have been to cap FSLR from moving way higher on momentum, it could have been profit taking, but I get a different feel. The point is, whatever the reason for slowing FSLR down, the 1 min is now moving positive and should move across the various timeframes until it erases the 5 min chart's negative.

Why? It could have been "Over-Steer", they put a little too much supply on the market and were correcting it, it could have been the task of capping FSLR at 8% was completed, FSLR was paused and now they are ready to get it warmed back up or it could have been profit taking, but I don't really understand why there would be a 1 min turning positive as we are not at lower prices where a pullback would be accumulated.

For whatever the reason, this just seems to be another book mark or maybe we should call it a "Book-Market". There seems to have been a very clear effort to hold the market in place, perhaps they were looking for shorts to jump in as it seems retail did today and that wouldn't have happened if the market made a 3 +% 1 day move today.

Shorts in a scenario like this are basically fuel, Wall St. doesn't have to invest any money to push the market to the next cluster of BTC stops or buy orders, they simply let a short squeeze do the work.


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