The new website will be much more functional on my end which will allow me to free up a lot more administrative time for more important things, such as analysis. The log-in / password system will be different, more like the ones you are use to allowing you to choose your own name and password and certain preferences.
When the launch date arrives, all current members will receive the link and instructions to create your own profile. We are adding more member functionality, we are working on allowing you to choose what posts are delivered to you and how. The site will also automatically refresh so there will be no need to refresh to see if there are new posts.
There are a lot of other VERY exciting additions we are exploring, some will make it, some probably won't, but as we continue to grow, more and more tools to help enhance your experience will be added.
All of the ideas each of you have sent me... I didn't forget them, they all went in to a folder so I can review them and try to add the functionality and implement the ideas that you sent, just because they didn't materialize (mostly because of current site and time constraints) at the time doesn't mean I don't value your input and I think you'll see that in the new site.
If you have ideas, things that would make the site more useful, easier to read, better content delivery, even the colors and fonts, if they make the site better, I will see what I can do, but get them in soon as our launch date will be very soon (it could be next week to perhaps the end of the month depending on what else we add and how long it takes to run all of the functionality tests).
For existing members the monthly fee will remain the same, you are grandfathered in. Because the new site is also going to come with new costs, new memberships after the site is launched will be a little more expensive, but I don't think anyone works as long and as hard as I do for $50 a month - the average NEWSLETTER delivered once a day is $99.00 a month.
In researching other sites for ideas, I've seen some other sites that tell you that you can become a millionaire shorting penny stocks, in fact this particular individual sent me an advance copy of his book years ago and asked me to review it on Trade Guild and he wanted to add my review to the back cover, the problem was, I couldn't finish the book. To me it had no useful content, was very long and I simply couldn't endorse something I couldn't finish reading.
The point is, the promises of riches beyond belief has a slight hiccup to it. First, doing anything with penny stocks is inherently dangerous as they are probably the most manipulated and least regulated market. Second, only shorting them (or taking a single approach to any market) is an even worse idea. I only know this person tangentially, but I thought he seemed to be a sincere person, if not a little self-absorbed, but the fact remains, if you were to try to place a short order with any of your brokers on a penny stock, you'd have zero chance of getting filled.
It's not illegal to short penny stocks, but see how many brokers will let you short anything below $5.00 and the portfolio size and margin costs for the one that does allow it are simply insane. He recommends 1 broker that will allow shorting of penny stocks of which he is an affiliate so beyond the high membership fees and in certain cases I mean higher than many of your portfolio values, he's also seemingly making money on every order you place through the affiliated broker. So the point is, I think our membership fees are fair, I don't promise you the world, but rather try to bring you the reality of the market and how you can use that in any trading style you chose to gain an edge.
Another popular site charges $2000 a year just to follow the real time trades they place (again in a paper traded portfolio, no explanation of the trade, just a real time alert), they then choose their 10-top performing ideas a month and put those in their "Model Portfolio" to show their yearly performance!
If you want to add their "Daily Market Commentary" including a weekly watchlist and two emails a week to ask questions- oh and get a discount on their seminars that teach you Technical Analysis, THEN ADD ANOTHER $800 A YEAR and this is standard, run of the mill Technical Analysis (I know because I use to be a member and from the radio show I recently listended to, they are doing things exactly the same as they did in 1998, 50/200 day moving average crossovers, candlestick set ups, etc). So $233 a month for no real market edge or understanding and run of the mill technical analysis - the same you can find in 1 of 1000 books.
So I'm pretty excited, I'm excited to hear more ideas, I'm eternally thankful for working with such a fine group of people. As many of you know, I taught trading/technical analysis for 3.5 years for the Palm Beach County School system's "Adult Education Program". I made $18.50 an hour for 3 hours a week plus the additional 6-8 hours it took me each week to prepare that week's course and handouts which I always wanted to reflect what was going on in the market at that time, so you do the math - about $5 an hour. Obviously I didn't do it for the money, I did it because I have always wanted to help those who were being scammed by financial media and Wall Street, that's why I started my free site, Trade-Guild almost a decade ago and it's still there today. I want to give the little guy the chance to play on equal footing with the big guys and there's nothing more fulfilling than to be able to do what you love and do it for a group of people (our members) in which in which no others could be more deserving.
I believe in Karma, The Law of the Harvest, Do unto others, etc. In fact, some would say to a fault. I stayed in a bad marriage for 10 years, 8 years too long because I had made a promise, there were only 3 things that were deal breakers for me, the 3 "A's", Addiction, Adultery, Abuse, one of the 3 let me feel justified in asking for a divorce, but even then, I put the money for my trading account (as I had been trading for a living at the time, in my name only as she had been out of the country for 4 months (we decided to take a break and see where we were after 3 months and during that time one of the "A"'s popped up). I told her when she returned back to the US (I didn't want the money disappearing to Europe through an international withdrawal) I would put her name on the account as it had been as well and it would be decided on in the divorce. EVERYONE told me, "She'll take all of the money the first chance she gets" and you know how much I love trading and the market, I told them, "You're probably right, but this is her money too and I'm not going to do the wrong thing just because she might". Some, probably most would say that's naive, that's not a rational decision given what I knew about her, I AGREE. However, I believe so strongly in the concept of "You get back what you put out" that I put her name on the account as I promised when she returned. Four weeks later, the account was emptied and by the State of Florida's divorce laws, since we were still married when it happened, there was nothing I could do about it. The sum was large enough that I could no longer trade exclusively for a living, I lost the one thing I loved doing most so I could do the one thing I believe in doing most, the right thing.
In any case, 5 or so years later I have a thriving business in which I get to do the two things I love most, work in the market and help others, you get what you give. She on the other hand had her heart broken, lost a lot of friends and ended up moving back to Europe to live in her parents house while I own mine free and clear, we both started from the same crappy place 5 or so years ago, THAT'S PROOF TO ME. My point simply is, I have no agenda, I'm here to do what I say and further proof has been given to me in the form of my membership, I honestly have the best group of people I could ever imagine and mathematically it's nearly impossible to have so many members and not have one that is less than desirable. You can't put this many people in a movie theater and not have several pain in the butts! So, again, proof to me, whatever you SINCERELY put out there comes back to you.
I feel a little silly to be writing these things as it feels like boasting, but most of you have known me a long time and know I'm very open about things, I guess in working alone every day, all of you have become akin to my co-workers and you're all such good people I feel very comfortable being very open with you like you might with a buddy at work you trust.
Finally, I have a favor to ask... I have a ton of emails of member success stories, thank you notes, other very kind and flattering emails, etc, but they're private communications between you and I. I'd like to add a "Member Testimonial" section to the new site, I think it's better for members to describe what we are doing in many instances than myself. This isn't just as an advertisement, but in a way to ensure the site continues to be a blessing, that I don't get "the wrong" sort of people. I think members' own words may attract like minds.
I can describe what it is I'm trying to do which is not to be a guru (although I can tell if if I did act like I was sure of everything I said, I'd have twice as many members as people crave that stability in a very unsure and dynamic market, but I'd end up with a lot of people I wouldn't respect, I wouldn't enjoy working with and I feel are not deserving of success), but to be a lifelong student of the market, I don't always live up to my standards or goals, but I try. I'm not trying to keep my members by giving them trade ideas alone and not explaining why. I don't withhold any of the tools or concepts or make you rely on some "Mysterious, Secret Trading System" that you never see and will never understand. Instead of trying to ensure your success is dependent on me or anyone or anything else; I'm trying to show you what I know and watch you grow and help out wherever I can.
The fact is, what we do isn't for everyone and I'd rather not have members that aren't willing to learn or who are looking for a guru or someone just to tell them what to do at every step. I want the kind of members I have now, good people who work for their success and are deserving of it, people who give you (me) a chance, but confirm.
Our members are good hearted, deserving people that don't want to be part of the herd and are the most deserving of a chance to beat Wall Street at their own game, not just be an apathetic victim of the "Evil Market". Our members take control of their destinies, I'm just trying to do my part in helping new members break away from the herd, see what really happens in the market under the media fascade and why; to occasionally be a guide along the way in a way that people can understand when I can. You probably don't realize it, but I get back just as much from all of you.
Honoring the Individual...
I have back-tested hundreds of trading systems starting with those in Technical Analysis books and my own, I've found very few are what people say they are, very few are robust enough to beat the market in different market scenarios. I recently wrote to a member about one of the rare trading systems that actually did work, "The Turtle Trend Following System", which I believe the movie, "Trading Places" with Eddie Murphy was inspired by. This was one of the most successful commodity based trading systems of all time, it did have bad times when it lost money for 2 consecutive years, but came roaring back because the creators knew what they had worked, the market gets funky from time to time like it is now, but they trusted in their system even after 2 years of losses and everyone on Wall Street saying their system was dead, they had confidence in it and kept going and proved everyone wrong and they ended up with one of the most successful trading systems ever built.
For those who don't know, the "Turtle Traders" were a bet between the two designers of the system, like the movie "Trading Places", one thought traders were born, the other thought anyone could be a good trader if they had the tools to do it, he bet he could "Raise Traders" just like a turtle farm was raising turtles that he had seen on a recent far east trip.
They took in, I believe 14 people initially, most had no any experience at all with Wall Street or trading, they taught them the system in two weeks, gave them cash accounts and put them in the market, the "Turtle Traders" were an astonishing success. However, as I pointed out to the recipient of this recent email, ironically the man who wrote the book, "Trend Following" and gave away the Turtles' secret system was a former Turtle trader himself who was kicked out of the program because he couldn't follow the rules and couldn't make money, in fact was losing it while the others following the same set of rules were making tens of millions. I find it ironic that he (Michael Covel) wrote a book about a subject he was an utter failure at, but the point of the email was simply this...
There is no one best way of trading, it is what fits you best. I can give the same trade idea to 10 people and have 10 different results even if I walk them through it step by step. Why? There are many reasons, perhaps it's time, perhaps it's a mismatch of risk tolerance, perhaps that person who failed in this trade has fantastic talents in another type of trading, I've seen this first hand in working with a large portfolio for someone else, I gave him every detail of successful trades, but he couldn't follow them and lost money because he was too greedy at the start of the trade and too fearful in the trade, which ironically was the result of being too greedy at the start of the trade. I gave this man in 4 months, trade ideas that if he had stuck with, would have netted his portfolio 45% in that timeframe not accounting for the additional gains from accrued profits. I miraculously was able to keep him flat, but I had to dig him out of a lot of holes. If you are wondering how this can happen, take this small example.
I'd send him a trade, buy 100 shares of FSLR (I had already done the risk management and position sizing for him, he just had to place the order), he'd think, "If 100 is good, then 1000 is better". Fair enough, IF you have the risk tolerance. FSLR could be a pretty volatile stock at the time and in the course of a normal day's volatility, the position which was 10 times larger than I had recommended was now at an intraday loss of some crazy amount on the first day, his greed caused that, but his fear of normal volatility for the stock within a normal day caused him to sell at the bottom of the day's range and take a pretty big loss, the next day or week, FSLR would be up 10%, but instead of a nice gain, he took a big loss.
This is why I try to give you the concepts, ideas and truth of the market and try to help you find your own "best trading system", the one that fits and works for you is the best.
Any way, in addition to ideas for the new site, if anyone would like to send a testimonial (whether a sentence or...) I'd appreciate it, no identifying information or anything else will be used without your permission.
Many thanks.
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