Trade Idea

I've talked about this for a long time, it isn't really logical to me (well in a few ways), but some of the best trades I've had were strong signals that made no sense, The $USD was one that was very strong while the $USD was very week and there was nothing in the news or fundamentals to suggest the $USD turn up, but I followed the signal and it turned up. Maybe 3 weeks after the turn the Treasury and F_E_D both came out within a week of each other talking about a "Strong Dollar Policy", smart money knew and all we knew was they knew something. If you waited to find out what it was, you missed the trade.

I'm seeing the same in TLT, I mention it now because it's not quite there, but closing in on "There" and if you agree with my assessment of the charts, then you may want to plan for it and make sure you have dry-powder available. I'd like to leverage the position up as well.

 TLT 4 hour, each divergence here took about 5 to 6 weeks to build, you get an idea of the downside move at 16 points, this is one of the reasons I want to leverage up the position, so far we have a positive roughly the same size, but I've been interested in TLT since long before it came down in Q2, in fact near the start of the year the odd trade was noticeable and stood out against the backdrop of the market's slow and steady m,melt-up.

30 min TLT chart is looking ready to go, it's a matter of positioning now...

The 10 min is showing TLT will pullback which is good considering I like it long.

The 2 min chart is sharper as it should be

And there's migration of this negative divergence through the timeframes including this 5 min and the 10 min above so it could be a decent pullback, but as soon as the short term charts start  going  positive, I want to be ready. I'd consider this a core position.