Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Update

In a few key areas there's some decent movement, for example the averages are showing some good movement, HYG as I posted last night, was able to fend off deterioration and create a short term positive divergence that I thought would move higher today, thereby supporting the market which it is.

MCP is working as I suspected it might, but it just doesn't have the divergence I was hoping it would have, maybe it will later, but without that, it's hard to trust that the move there won't suddenly fall apart in an instant.

There are still a lot of areas with virtually no movement and I don't think anyone would be surprised with the F_O_M_C underway today and out with their statement tomorrow, unless there's a leak or some other information, that's something we are looking for, so far it's pretty quiet.

Here's a sampling of the averages in the timeframes that are useful at 10:30 in the a.m., they look as I suspected and without MCP showing its own positive divergence today, it's hard to trust it with the market averages looking like this so far.

 DIA intraday 1 min example, no confirmation of this morning's price action at all, in fact the opposite.

The same with the IWM 1 min (really all the charts from 1-3 min look the same, I'm just not posting  12 charts).

 QQQ 2 min is leading negative so it's very far from confirmation and in to distribution as I suspected based on the tone of recent trade.


SPY 3 min and the original positive fueling any upside which came from Friday morning lows, on the open though the 3 min chart is not confirming and I'd say pretty close to distribution.

HYG showed this deterioration that was saved late day and turned to a positive divergence, I figured HYG would be higher today in support of the market, it is, but it's not any better than in line on a 1 min chart.

In essence, HYG is the jump-starter for the market right now.

This is MCP  which already had a number of short term positive divergences, but the move today below support should have given a very clear signal, without it the leveraged trade is very ex[posed, especially when the under-currents in the market are this fragile.

I'm looking at positions on the watch-list that I think will make good trades, yet again, whether it's too early or there's just not a lot of activity in front of the F_O_M_C,  there's very little movement or what is for us, a strong edge...at least as of this first 90 minutes of trade.



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