Thursday, October 31, 2013

BIDU Trade Idea Update

I don't know why I didn't do this before, but I had been reminding you after the fact that before the bounce off the 10/9 lows, I had been looking for a strong rally to the upside and this was BEFORE there was any 3C indication of it.

My reasoning was that there were "Hundreds" of shorts on my watchlists that were just so close, but they needed that extra little push and that wasn't happening without the market driving.

This is 1 of those actual posts from Sept. 25 with the exact wording at the time and this was one of many in that time period, so we were expecting this move up first based on behavior and second we started to get 3C signals confirming the behavioral theory.

The comments from Sept. 25 as this is relevant to BIDU (Bold was from the original post)...

"In fact, the best reasoning I see for a market bounce is hundreds of individual stocks themselves and the vast majority have their own signals to bounce.

HOWEVER, LETS NOT FORGET THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, that's why I took the time to remind you in the post linked above, what the averages look like and they are no joke. Those aren;'t divergences off in the future, those are divergences we are in the middle of right now so now is a time to pick and chose your battles, to be patient and know when to paddle in or when to swing that bat."

These comments are from Friday Sept. 20th...
"Last night I was trying to communicate that there's almost always a goal behind a market move, like when I said, "That Bull-Flag didn't appear by chance " yesterday. I explained the reason as well, the hundreds of beautiful short set ups that are just 1-4% away from near perfect entries, but more than that, from the kind of demand (higher prices and volume) Wall St. needs to position in the size they trade, so I haven't changed my tune at all since August when the accumulation range started forming, I'm saying right now and last night the exact same thing in August that I thought would happen and thus far has."


 THIS 5 DAY CHART IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF MOVE ABOVE FORMER HIGHS I WAS TALKING ABOUT IN SEPTEMBER AND BIDU WASN'T EVEN ON MY LIST OF STOCKS I WAS LOOKING AT.

The ATR on the last run is significantly lower than on the previous.

A Channel Buster on a daily chart, these are the "Changes of character" we look for as they lead to changes in trend. Usually we'd see a move back inside the channel before a failure, BIDU just missed that. The yellow to the right would be the new high and yesterday which I believe was earnings looks a while lot like a churning day better known in the west as distribution days, expensive shares exchange hands from strong hands to weak hands.

 This 4 hour chart seems to show the set up for the run above resistance with accumulation , then distribution right before the Channel Buster and a leading negative since, basically it never recovered.

60 min chart, distribution at the Channel Buster, again on the breakout new high  which did have some volume, we have a leading negative signal instead of 3C at a new confirmation high,

The 30 min chart shows the same process with more detail, distribution across that entire head fake area.

The 15 min chart shows more detail as it should, distribution INTO the Channel Buster and at the area we were looking for these stocks and hundreds like it to move to.

The intraday chart shows recent and very small accumulation, it looks like just enough to help BIDU over the hurdle, the yellow would be a head fake area or failed breakout as there's distribution and today we see more on the intraday highs.

Again the same small accumulation on a 2 min chart to help BIDU above resistance and a positive this morning at the lows with negatives at the intraday highs.

The 3 min chart shows the same, it's scaled to intraday so it's more clear.

And we see the same at a 5 min chart, that's good migration for a single day. At this point I'd want some exposure to BIDU at these levels and if I can add at better levels, I'd have plenty of room.

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