Quick Update

One more quick update before I switch layouts to Leading Indicators. I thought you should see this as well...

 The ES or SPX Futures CONTEXT Model is now at a -39 ES point differential, this is pretty high and suggests ES (SPX futures) are overvalued by nearly 40 points according to other institutional risk assets and how they are trading, meaning other institutional risk assets are being sold, the market is ignoring them and I think you know why I believe that is.

The SPY Arbitrage Model is negative -$.87 which means according to the model, the SPY should be nearly $.90 lower than it is now, I suspected this was the case as HYG has stalled, VIX futures are not moving lower as they should be, they are seeing some demand for protection and TLT is up, but I see some negative divergences in TLT so as I suspected earlier, I think TLT is coming down probably to fill the gap, which is good as far as I'm concerned because I like TLT as a long term long position.

Remember tomorrow is Op-Ex Friday, the close on Thursday is typically VERY close to the Max Pain pin range seen Friday, however in this case since there is an agenda and target that the SPX is close to fulfilling, I would venture to say that tomorrow's market pin may not be as high as it seems right now.

 This is the 15 min chart which is a good timeframe to show us what is going on in this trend up since the 10/9 VIX sell signal, we have accumulation in to it which is why we expected a move higher or at least confirmation of why we expected a move higher. We have an in line green arrow and then leading negative distribution, that's the overall action of this trend. Intraday is much different, it does not show the underlying trend, just intraday.

 The 1 min SPY is still the best intraday chart and I believe that's because it's the one that hasn't made the new breakout high except for the DIA which is too far away to even bother trying. Since capturing this, the market has turned quickly, but even with the move down, 3C is still in line with price, even though it is down.

 As evidence that today's move is nothing more than a thin veneer started by a short squeeze, there's no confirmation at the 2 min chart which is a pretty weak timeframe, if there's no confirmation there, the 1 min action (3C) is very thin indeed.

The DIA already leading negative intraday and suggesting a reversal.

The IWM and Q's only have 1 reason to move up as they have made their new high breakouts, that is to help move the components within them that still need that head fake high, the NFLX's , otherwise even their intraday 1 min charts are negative right in time for the downside move that just occurred.

 The QQQ was telegraphing that intraday move down even better, very clearly.

If you were watching the NYSE TICK data, it also gave a warning.

I need to check some institutional assets and Leading Indicators to see how serious the position we are in really is, whether it's time to start really loading the core positions (mostly shorts) or adding to them or whether there's a little more time. I kind of suspect that we'd need to get through op-ex Friday before anything too serious which is perfect as it gives me time to asses the stocks that look to be in the best position over the weekend.