Last Friday as XOM made a nice run, I posted this update and had said,
"The 5 min is nearly perfectly in line, however the price action looks a little too parabolic for me,"
If you look at the post, you'll see how many times we have been in and out of XOM, all successful positions. I still love XOM and will enter it again as a call position, but ultimately my goal is to enter XOM as a core/trend short position, we just need to get to that area, but until then, there's decent money to be made in the double digits.
This most recent position being closed (even as I looked at it earlier and thought I might ride it out) has more to do with the gain that's in place and knowing how parabolic moves typically end, almost the mirror opposite of the way they began so that would be significant draw down and I don't see a purpose in taking it when a new position can be opened at a discounted premium if indeed there's a parabolic-like move to the downside.
This is the P/L for the position just closed and the follow up charts of what I'm looking for in the next several trades.
At the cost of $2.44 and a fill of $2.90, the Gain comes out to +18.85%
The 3 min chart has a decent base, it's more the parabolic move I'm concerned with, most of which was from Friday and 3C slowing down up here.
The same is true of the 5 min chart, but the base area (positive divegrence) is still large enough that I don't think a correction will be too deep, although it may be swift and emotional.
The 30 min chart seems to promise many more chances to make double digit gains on the upside, although I believe you need leverage for the most part.
Here my Custom Buy/Sell Indicator has shown several smaller sell signals that were appropriate for the moves they saw after, this current one is the largest of all by far.
Again, the hourly chart tells me we'll be back in XOM long at lower prices so there's no need to be concerned about opportunities, I just see no reason to let a nearly 20% gain fade here mostly because of what a parabolic decline would do to the premium.
Longer term, as for the most important position, a trending short or core short as XOM already was once, 3C is quite clear on the matter. Look at the years where there was huge accumulation and price was bullish and think back to what was happening then, now look at XOM and think about what is happening now,
I'd like to short XOM above the red trendline, around >$96.50 for a long term trend position.
The trend version of 3C looks almost exactly the same as the version above.
Patience and set alerts, there are many more opportunities here.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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