Interesting Futures Activity or lack of...

Earlier tonight I mentioned the 5 min positive I saw last week in the Index Futures that made me think we'd see a lift from that point, not anything more specific than that, not a new trend, just a move up the next day after a bad reaction Wednesday to the F_O_M_C minutes (the knee-jerk effect strikes again)...

This is EXACTLY how I started my post last Thursday, November 21st in the Daily Wrap...

"I want to start kind of where we left off last night, there were several signals including some improved 3C signals in to the closing hour and 5 min positive Index Futures, we had a F_E_D inspired knee jerk reaction so I really expected the market to open higher this morning, but I didn't think we had enough improvement to do it without some help so my exact words in last night's daily wrap were..."

And then I went on to show you the middle of the night slam down in the single currency Yen futures and how that got the market moving- just for context.

The point however was the 5 min positives along with late day 3C improvement Wednesday were what first had me thinking the market would try for the $16000 Dow, $1800 SPX and $4000 NASDAQ Comp which is still short about 9 points.

The second point is that the 5 min positive worked well, it was right on, however that has changed and now is a 5 min negative.

Here's the open of futures tonight...

 This is the 1 min Yen futures tonight on the open, what is interesting is comparing them to ES on the open, Yen futures were fairly strong or at least better than neutral out of the gate, that's not great for the market, but it's not a big deal.

On the other hand Index futures like ES (SPX e mini futures) came roaring out of the gate, it wasn't until the divergence left over from Friday's close kicked in and the Index futures lost upside momentum did they revert to their new favorite trick of slamming the Yen down in the middle of the night when volumes are low, thereby driving up the carry pairs and thus the market. Note where Yen futures were slammed twice tonight.

This is the 30 min chart of the Yen with the slow down in downside momentum we saw last week  and the slam tonight, I have to wonder if this may be some sort of Yen short term bottom, it was looking that way last week.

 Here's the 1 min chart of ES futures, ripping out of the gate presumably on the Iran deal as oil was down, however the 3C divergence from Friday kept going and ES lost all momentum to the upside, right around that area is when and where the Yen was slammed, it was like, "Houston, we have a problem, Index futures have stalled, slam the Yen!"

What is interesting thus far though...

 Is although the carry pairs were driven higher despite a floundering Euro and AUD and a semi decent looking $USD, the EUR/JPY was able to make an all-time new high, but did it help futures?

 Here they are again, this time Russell 2000 futures and the answer thus far has been "NO".

 The paragraph I started Thursday's post with talked about a 5 min positive in the Index futures, here it is in ES 5 min chart, that told me it was likely we'd see an up-day Thursday if the market could get a little extra help and I went so far as to predict they'd slam the Yen in the middle of the night and they did. That Daily Wrap is worth reading again I think.

My point tonight is now the 5 min is negative and thus far, the market will not respond to an all-time record EUR/JPY, it won't respond to not one, but two Yen slams in the middle of the night.

Furthermore...

The 15 min ES is negative as I felt the market on Friday (you may recall I opened a bevy of new positions Friday afternoon).

I don't read too much in to opening futures this early on, but there does seem to be a pattern forming of the tools that use to work like a charm not having much effect or a very short half-life and this includes Central Bank speakers, Draghi, Bernie and now Yellen.

Just something to keep an eye on and my reasoning is very straight forward, expectations are now for a December F_E_D taper, look, I'm not predicting when a taper starts, I think I have some insight to what the F_E_D has been doing because it has been so obvious, but the point here is every time QE ended in the past, the market front-ran the F_E_D, meaning they sold off the market before QE ended in anticipation, of course they would, they're not going to try to put on huge shorts or sell in to a falling market once the music stops, they are going to sell in to and short in to a rising market while the music is still playing. Unlike others, this is an open ended QE which leaves a large measure of uncertainty which the market doesn't like. 

What we may be seeing is the front running already in full swing, except this time no one expects another round of QE like they have in the past, everyone knows this is pretty much the swan song, so how much further in advance do you front run? I think these little hints were are seeing like the Yen are important pieces of the puzzle.