Jobs...Another Odd Fitting Piece

Bt now you probably know what the jobs number came in at and even more importantly and as predicted, what the unemployment rate came in at, a total disconnect as we've been saying since the extended unemployment benefits were dropped from the budget.

Non-Farm Payrolls missed HUGE, printing at a gain of 74k vs consensus of the average 200k (consensus), this is the worst print in just over 4 years.

Private Payrolls weren't much better at 87k vs consensus of 200k,

HOWEVER, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED FROM 7 TO 6.6%, THAT'S AWEFULLY CLOSE TO THE F_E_D'S INITIAL 6.5% THRESHOLD.

So how did a measly gain of 74k jobs drop the Unemployment rate from 7% to 6.6%?

IT's the Number of People NOT in the work force and to think that this month's print only had a few hundred thousand drop off when over a million will be dropping off shortly!

Silly right? 

Most of the market acted in an UNTAPER kind of way with Treasury Yields dropping, Treasuries soaring, gold and silver popping and the $USD dropping, but stocks were interesting.

In any case, that silliness we expected, there's some other that is strange, some that looks like a leak.

 Remember the 1 min negative divergence I mentioned last night, even though there was a steady melt-up in futures all night, in fact so much so that stocks were finally entering green for the year, yet this negative divegrence continued through midnight....

Then kept on going from midnight to present.

If there was a leak, it seems like someone was trying to get out at the best prices.

The 5 min chart remains negative as Index futures popped up overnight in a methodical way.

What's interesting is the steady overnight climb above VWAP, then on the initial release, ES LOST ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT GAINS INSTANTLY, AND THEN....

AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 3 OR 4 DAYS AT THE CLOSE, POPPED RIGHT BACK UP STRAIGHT TO VWAP AS IF IT WERE A MAGNET.

As for a leak...The Bond market doesn't trade 24hours, bond futures do, but not bonds. However it seems just before the NFP was released, someone was bettering on bonds to pop which wouldn't make a lot of sense with market futures rising all night UNLESS, someone expected a taper off reaction and bonds to soar with yields dropping as happened.

So interestingly, the initial reaction was FULL taper on because of the drop in the unemployment rate, but then a rebound to VWAP, perhaps because the gain was so small, even seasonally adjusted? Or perhaps because that's just what the market has been doing all this week. Who knows, but it's an odd one, that for sure, with the exception of the unemployment rate, that was predictable as the number of people NOT IN THE WORKFORCE AND NOT COUNTED AS UNEMPLOYED, YET STILL HAVE NO JOB, SOARED TO 91,808,000 !