As far as I'm concerned, this is still "patience" time. The move witnessed this morning seems to be nothing much more than noise at this point, there are still some key signals that are being built, but aren't there yet.
ES for its part is seeing and feeling some of the drag of that 5 min negative divegrence I mentioned the last day or so.
ES 5 min
However while this movement may get some people to chase it or cause some trades in both directions, what I'm looking for are the tell-tale signs a viable move is in place. Much like yesterday there are hints of that building, but so far there's nothing jumping off the screen that is saying to me, "Don't ignore me".
So other than trade management, I think it's still patience time.
Tomorrow's NFP may be a key event the market is waiting on, a strong number should be taken badly by the market.
We're also very early in to the day today so I'm not saying today will be a waste and we'll just be watching, we have plenty of time for the signals that need to develop to do so, the ones I'm looking for have so far put in the initial signs in spots of about an hour each, then they wait and do nothing, then another big move in about an hour so they can, when they are ready, put in the signals we are looking for very quickly.
Until then, I'definitely leaning short in the trading portfolio and of course in the core shorts, but I'm not making new commitments.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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