Wednesday, February 26, 2014

GLD / DZZ Update

DZZ is a 2x leveraged short Gold ETN. I have to say that long term as in primary trend, I like gold a lot and I'll show you why, but short term I have been looking for a pullback in Gold because of the signals I have been seeing. This morning BofA launched their "Sell Gold Campaign" which has apparently hit silver pretty hard, but I do find it interesting that this is  the 3rd or so position BofA has been involved with this last week publicly. Yesterday it was the AUD/JPY which they were pushing people to buy, so they obviously have some to sell and it has been the worst performing of the 3 carry trades.

This is what GLD looked like and why I entered a DZZ (2x short gold) long position in the trading portfolio.
 30 min clear negative divegrence, I was considering Put options on a move higher, but decided to go with an equity/ETN, DZZ.

I pointed out the gap and that very few gaps are left unfilled, as well as this 10 min negative as well, but the divergences get more and more interesting considering BofA came out with their "Sell Gold" Analysis today, which tells me they are likely buyers. Take a look at the very recent signals...

This is an intraday version of the 15 min chart, that'sd a pretty sharp leading negative divegrence on a long timeframe that developed VERY quickly just 2 days before their report.... Hmmm.

Look at this intraday chart, that's distribution all day yesterday from about 10:45 until the close right before BofA says sell gold.

I'll hold the DZZ position open for now because if anything I'd think BofA wants to buy gold on the cheap and I'll show you why, it's the same reason I like gold a lot as a long term primary trend play.

 The 60 min chart is one reason I like GLD longer term, but the least of 3 reasons...

The 4 hour leading positive divergence is the second reason I like GLD long term and if you look at the location of the positive divergences you'll notice they are very low in the range, thus BofA's call to sell gold as that would allow them to accumulate Low in the....
 And the first reason I like GLD/gold long term, the daily chart's leading positive divegrence after a large relative positive divegrence.

If you look at DZZ, it's not giving the kind of signals that would suggest a primary trend trade, it seems more than worthwhile trading, but more along the swing trade line...

It has a 15 min leading positive chart, but not much past that, I figure that's about right to put GLD around the bottom of its range....

We'll take a look at GLD as a possible long when we get to crossing that bridge, for now, I'm going to assume that the above is probably pretty close to what's going on and DZZ should do well over the next week or so.






No comments: