Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Quick Market Update

So far so good, you can see it on a simple daily SPX chart with a doji as the daily candle, that's more or less what I'm looking for as it represents the lateral movement which is going to have some chop.

The idea is basically this.
It's more a less just a cover for time, lateral consolidation. The market is run by supertankers, we have to view the market in that light. Our experience is that we are like jet skis compared to them, we can get in and out of what would be a large position for us in one trade, they can't do the same because of the sheer size and the dangers they face from entities like predatory HFT, looking for their orders to front run them, thus they have to break large orders up in to smaller pieces, that's essentially what 3C is following, but we, unlike the HFTs, are not targeting any particular institution/Private Equity, Investment bank, we're just looking to tag along on the moves they set up.

In any case, this is what I was expecting.

Volatility has been low so far, but don't be surprised to see an intraday move that wither excites or frightens the bulls...The Bulls? Yes, the bulls.

Last week sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish, as I said about a head fake move, "They have to be strong enough to swing sentiment. As institutions sell short or sell, they need someone to buy and last week's bears are today's bulls.

Our StockTwitss/Twitter sentiment update confirms what we knew was coming well over a week ago.

"It's funny how emotional these people get and now I see targets of 1900 on SPX, it seems whenever a market moves hard in one direction they all become more bullish in that direction or more bearish."

As I said last week before the head fake move even started, the reason we can see the signs of these in advance is because Wall St. doesn't do anything without a reason, the head fake wasn't coincidence, it was set up, we watched it being set up and were able to predict it days, even a week in advance, this was the biggest lesson I had to learn when opening my mind to what 3C showed me, it wasn't what Technical Analysis taught, but it is what it is.

In any case, so far, so good.

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