Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Trading Portfolio Positioning and VXX / UVXY

As mentioned, over the last few days I've been slowly adjusting the trading portfolio to account for worsening signals in the market, I doubt I'm quite done yet, but as of now it stands like this...

Short Exposure: SQQQ and SPXU

Long exposure, but not necessarily market correlated. market correlated: MCP / IOC

I like MCP as a longer term trade and keep it as a core position, as a trading position I'd like to keep it unless I really see a short term opportunity that is too great to pass up. IOC I'm going to go through shortly, but the main exposure and leaning is bearish with SQQQ and SPXU.

I have mentioned the this week that if I were to add to an already open VXX call position, I'd do so with UVXY long which would go in the trading portfolio and would lean it even more bearish. I haven't made a decision on this yet, I want to run through my watchlist and see what might look better. There are no options trades in the trading portfolio, only equity/ETF positions (It is set up not to allow any options trades).

As for UVXY which is just the 2x leveraged version of VXX, it looks interesting here, especially as the actual VIX futures are seeing some very positive action.
 intraday VIX futures with a leading positive divegrence, 5 min VIX futures are also positive as we have seen them go from negative last week to in line to positive now.

VXX 1 min intraday also is leading positive right as it makes a move under support, essentially the "Chimney" area which is typically a run on stops that ignites momentum just before a reversal.

 The 2 min chart shows where we had opened our last put position at the negative and the recent positive

 The same is seen on the 5 min chart which is now in an attractive position, only a higher leading positive would make it look better and I suspect that is coming.

This is where and why I consider UVXY long, it has also seen positive accumulation on a 10-min chart, this is where we just started seeing some 10 min negatives in the averages yesterday like the Q's.

And even a 15 min chart is leading positive.

I wouldn't begrudge anyone who liked UVXY long here, it's in a good cost position and a stop can be placed just a bit under the lows (away from any obvious technical levels or averages) making it a lower risk position as well and we have the run on stops which is a good timing indication.


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